As the month of October approaches, drivers across the UAE are once again turning their attention to fuel prices. Every month, the UAE Fuel Price Committee announces revised petrol and diesel rates, aligning them with international crude oil benchmarks. These updates have a direct impact on households, businesses, and the wider economy, making fuel price predictions a key talking point.
So, what can a driver expect for October 2025? Let’s look back at September’s adjustments, examine the latest global oil trends, and forecast the likely pump prices for the coming month.
A Quick Recap: UAE Petrol Prices in September 2025
September brought minor adjustments for petrol grades and a small relief for diesel users. The rates set by the committee were as follows:
- Super 98 – AED 2.70 per litre
- Special 95 – AED 2.58 per litre
- E-Plus 91 – AED 2.51 per litre
- Diesel – AED 2.66 per litre
Compared to August, petrol prices nudged upwards by just 1 fils per litre, reflecting subtle shifts in global crude values. Diesel, however, saw a small reduction, easing transport costs for logistics companies and commercial fleets.
This pattern highlighted the balancing act between crude oil price volatility, supply-side adjustments by OPEC+, and demand dynamics in global markets.
Global Oil Market Snapshot: September into October
Fuel prices in the UAE are directly tied to international oil benchmarks such as Brent crude. As of mid-September 2025, crude oil has been trading in the $60–65 per barrel range, with downward pressure emerging from:
- OPEC+ Production Increases: The cartel has confirmed a phased output rise starting October, adding supply into global markets.
- Growing Inventories: The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects global oil inventories will build through Q4 2025.
- Weaker Asian Demand: Key importers such as China and India are showing slower refinery runs due to subdued domestic demand.
- Potential OSP Cuts: Saudi Arabia is considering reducing its official selling price (OSP) for October cargoes to Asia, signaling softer demand.
At the same time, seasonal changes are in play. With summer driving demand tapering off, petrol consumption traditionally dips slightly in Q4, while industrial diesel demand may remain steady.
Key Factors Shaping October Fuel Prices
To forecast October’s rates, several global and regional dynamics need to be considered:
1. OPEC+ Output Policy
October marks another small but steady increase in OPEC+ oil production quotas. More supply on the market generally places downward pressure on crude prices. This is expected to help moderate petrol price hikes in the UAE.
2. Crude Oil Price Trends
With Brent likely stabilising in the low-60s range, UAE pump prices should stay close to September’s levels, with only marginal shifts expected.
3. Diesel Demand vs Petrol Demand
Diesel tends to follow a different trajectory from petrol. Global diesel margins are currently tighter due to refinery economics, which may keep diesel slightly more expensive relative to crude trends.
4. Currency and Logistics Costs
The UAE dirham is pegged to the US dollar, which stabilises exchange-related volatility. However, shipping, refining, and storage costs can still nudge final pump prices a few fils higher or lower.
5. Geopolitical and Seasonal Factors
From Middle Eastern shipping lanes to weather-related refinery shutdowns, external shocks remain wildcards that can alter global fuel balances quickly.
UAE Petrol Price Prediction for October 2025
Based on current crude forecasts, OPEC+ supply moves, and demand patterns, here is our prediction for UAE pump prices in October:
| Fuel Grade | Expected Price in October 2025 | Trend |
| E-Plus 91 | AED ≈ 2.51 – 2.53 / litre | Stable to slight rise |
| Special 95 | AED ≈ 2.58 – 2.60 / litre | Marginal increase |
| Super 98 | AED ≈ 2.70 – 2.73 / litre | Slight upward pressure |
| Diesel | AED ≈ 2.65 – 2.70 / litre | Stable, may edge up |
These estimates suggest no major changes compared to September. Petrol is likely to remain broadly stable with minor increases, while diesel could hover around its current level or rise slightly depending on industrial demand.
Risks and Wildcards
While predictions are based on available data, several scenarios could shift outcomes:
- Upside Risks (higher prices):
- Unexpected supply disruptions (geopolitical tensions, natural disasters).
- Stronger-than-expected fuel demand in Asia or Europe.
- Refinery outages raising refining margins.
- Downside Risks (lower prices):
- Weak global demand if economic growth slows further.
- Larger-than-expected stock builds in OECD economies.
- Deeper OSP cuts from key producers like Saudi Arabia.
The UAE’s monthly adjustment mechanism ensures that domestic pump prices move in line with these global shifts, protecting the market from prolonged volatility.
What This Means for Consumers and Businesses
For Everyday Drivers
Drivers should not expect any sharp jump in fuel bills in October. A small increase of 1–2 fils per litre translates to only a few dirhams more per full tank.
For Fleet Operators and Businesses
Diesel stability will be key for logistics firms, transport operators, and heavy industry. A mild rise in diesel is manageable, but businesses should continue to budget conservatively for Q4.
For Households and Commuters
Household budgets are unlikely to feel significant strain. Still, practicing fuel-efficient driving and trip planning remains a smart way to save on costs.
FAQs: UAE Petrol Price Prediction – October 2025
Fuel prices are reviewed and set each month by the UAE Fuel Price Committee, which adjusts local rates to reflect global crude oil benchmarks, refining costs, and distribution expenses.
The committee typically releases the official prices at the end of September. These rates remain fixed throughout the month of October.
The monthly revision ensures that fuel prices remain aligned with international oil market trends, preventing large long-term imbalances and supporting a fair, transparent pricing system.
Current forecasts suggest no major changes. Petrol may rise by 1–2 fils per litre, while diesel is expected to remain stable or see only a mild adjustment.
Motorists can reduce expenses by practicing fuel-efficient driving, keeping vehicles well-maintained, avoiding unnecessary idling, carpooling when possible, and using fuel rewards or loyalty programmes offered by UAE fuel retailers.
Final Outlook: October 2025
October is shaping up to be a month of stability for UAE fuel prices. Petrol grades are expected to stay within a very narrow range of September’s rates, with marginal increases possible due to refining and distribution costs. Diesel may see a slight uptick, but nothing that points to a major price swing.
Predicted October Prices (per litre):
- E-Plus 91: AED 2.51 – 2.53
- Special 95: AED 2.58 – 2.60
- Super 98: AED 2.70 – 2.73
- Diesel: AED 2.65 – 2.70
The UAE Fuel Price Committee will announce official October rates at the end of September. Until then, drivers can prepare for a relatively calm month at the pump — a welcome breather in a world of shifting oil markets.
Stable, predictable, and wallet-friendly — that’s what October 2025 promises for UAE petrol prices.
